[nb: this was originally written in March, for Red Pencil issue 2]
The referendum has already been decided.
It's been decided in people's hearts. It is fundamentally about whether people feel British first, or European first. For all that people clamour for it to be a fact-based debate, that is impossible. Seemingly the most obvious fact, that voting to Leave is 'the change vote' and Remain is 'the status quo vote' has been turned on its head by claims of superstatism and an EU expeditionary army to take on enemies of Europe around the world.
It's too easy to bring up facts from all sorts of sources. In fact it's impossible at the moment for many to even be bothered by the campaign at all. Fortunately, there is an abundance of silly stories and scaremongering. The EU are going to take our kettles, our toasters. And of course the ‘Vote Leave’ branded condoms, urging people to ‘pull out’ (eh?).
The accusation of 'project fear' is no longer exclusive to one side.
But neither should patriotism be considered as exclusive to one side. The idea that those wishing to stay are not patriotic, and are . The idea that the UK might not function so swimmingly when the EU realises its main financial centre is now outside of the EU is met with cries of 'stop doing Britain down!!!'
The real question is turnout. The pressure is on Remain.
The problem for innies (and maybe outies) is that those on the Out side are far more passionate (or swivel eyed, depending on which side of the fence you sit on). It's off putting for many ordinary people (whoever they are) to engage with the debate, or even to care. See for evidence that Remain might be in trouble the most recent EU elections and how UKIP 'won' them. This proves that only the most fanatical pay attention to Europe.
The democratic argument to Leave is a good one and one that convinces me the most.. The problem is that the average voter has no idea how the EU works. So by ranting and raving about European council legislation and democratic accountability you risk sounding at best wonkish and nerdy, and at worse an Icke-style paranoid.
Of course the divide is touted as dividing all parties down the middle, with the possible exception of UKIP (but of course a YouGov poll even showed about 28% of supporters want to stay– say one issue party one more time, I dare you) – there are significant Outies from Labour, the Greens, probably the Lib Dems, and of course Respect (who?). Despite all this, there is a demographic divide that is twofold. Old vs young is the obvious one. People born and/or raised in the Union see it as a natural part of life; why worry about it? We get cheap roaming charges. Those older, and those who even remember life before the EEC, seek a return to how things were before, to turn the clock back. Outies are older and less likely to be university educated. I was recently told about how Communists used to do exactly the same to children; indoctrinate them in the EU. 'Give me your child for seven years, and he will be a Europhile for life'.
